فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 75 (زمستان 1401)

This article models and forecasts the domestic and exports demand  of products of Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company (PGPIC) using a dynamic panel data model. The model is estimated using GMM method and domestic and export price index, the quantity demanded ​​of the company's products, the global price index of alternative products and the income of demandant companies for the PGPIC's products during the period 2004-2017. The price and income elasticity of demand for domestic demand function are -2.13 and 0.20, respectively indicating that domestic demand of the company’s products are elastic and necessary normal goods and there are substitutes for them. For the export demand function, the income elasticity of demand is 2.39 showing that the company's products are normal and luxurious goods for foreigners and there are more substitutes for PGPIC’s products in export markets. In order to maximize the company's revenue, lower prices should be applied to its products in the domestic and export markets. Also, the forecasting results of total domestic and foreign demand of the PGPIC’s petrochemical products indicates an increasing trend in the coming years.Therefore, appropriate planning should be done to provide necessary infrastructure to increase production capacity in the Persian Gulf Petrochemical Company.

Fluctuations in crude oil prices are among the factors affecting other economic indicators, and therefore these fluctuations have always been of interest to economists. In this paper, the effect of fundamental market factors (supply and demand of crude oil) on changes in world oil prices is addressed and supply and demand elasticity are estimated using the simultaneous equations system considering world crude oil prices, US dollar index, natural gas price, global military and security tensions, reserves of OECD countries, operating capacity of the world's refineries as well as world gross domestic product (GDP). Then, the proposed model is utilized to forecast the world crude oil prices. Using the proposed model, supply elasticity in relation to world crude oil price, reserves of OECD countries, and operating capacity of the world's refineries are estimated. Moreover, demand elasticity in relation to world crude oil prices, world GDP, US dollar index, natural gas prices, and military and security tensions in the world are estimated. based on the results, the highest impact belongs to the world GPD with the demand elasticity of 0.6039, and military and security tensions in the world have the minimum impact with a demand elasticity of -0.0110.

The amount of environmental pollution can be caused by several factors. These factors are not in the same position in terms of importance and impact, and not all of them can necessarily be seen together in one place or time. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric impact of oil prices, foreign direct investment and economic growth on carbon emissions in Iran during the period 1981 to 2019. For this purpose, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (NARDL) has been used. The results show the asymmetric effect of oil prices on carbon emissions. So that the effect of positive changes in oil price variables in the short and long term on carbon emissions is positive and significant, while there is no significant relationship between negative oil price shocks and carbon emissions in the short term. But there is a positive and significant relationship between negative changes in oil price variables and carbon emissions in the long run. The results also show that the effect of foreign direct investment on carbon emissions is symmetric, so that the effect of foreign direct investment on carbon emissions in the short and long term is negative and significant.

The present paper explains the dynamics of substitution tensions between fossil energy carriers for gas consumption in the transportation sector of Iran in the horizon of 2025 using seasonal space model and Kalman filter approach for the years 2006-2019 in the form of quarterly data. Based on the results; Price elasticity and revenue elasticity of gasoline and gas oil are -0.20, -0.15, 0.27 and 0.41, respectively. Income elasticity of products indicates that gasoline and gas oil are normal commodities. Also, the price elasticity of both products is less than one. Among the important factors in the low price elasticity of gasoline and gas oil with gas consumption in the transportation sector of Iran can be; Searched for supply and demand. On the supply side, we can mention the small number of stations compared to cars and the compressed gas distribution capacity of each province in relation to the population. This difference is so great that it has created a difference of 500% between the best and the worst province. On the demand side, we can mention the extra costs of repairing and maintaining gas-powered vehicles compared to gasoline-powered vehicles, less power, reducing trunk space, and so on.

The present study investigates the effect of globalization on energy consumption in developing countries including Iran for the period 2000 to 2018 in the form of a quantile panel regression approach. For this purpose, the KOF index was used as a globalization variable. The index, KOF, includes real trade flows such as trade, foreign direct investment and portfolio investment, as well as trade barriers such as restrictions and tariffs on real flows. The results of this study show that in low energy consumption quantiles, the effect of globalization on energy consumption has been positive and significant;  But at high levels of energy consumption, the impact of globalization on energy consumption has gradually diminished. Also in high energy consumption quantiles, the effect of GDP on energy consumption has decreased, the effect of financial development and capital formation on energy consumption has gradually decreased and the effect of foreign investment on energy consumption has gradually decreased. According to the research results, it is necessary to take steps in the field of sustainable development by adopting and implementing rational policies consistent with the role of energy in the trade sector and provide the ground for economic growth and development.

Financing is one of the most important challenges in launching new projects. Different methods of financing have different effects on project performance due to the variety of market and its risk and return. One of the new methods of financing projects is the creation of a project fund through the capital market, which investors are the final owner of the project, so participate in the economic benefits of the project. As regards the projects of the upstream oil and gas sector are very capital-intensive, in case of this financing method in the stock market, the micro-investor will also invest in the project, so in macro perspective, the economic fluctuation of liquidity is partially controlled. This paper examines the use of project fund finance in the upstream oil and gas industry. In this study, the requirements of the mentioned industry including cost, time and risk have been studied, using descriptive method and libraries. The pillars of the fund and their tasks are listed, as well as the challenges of this method, mainly including the ownership of oil and gas outfit and equipment at the end of the construction period and the transfer tax are reviewed and its solutions are also proposed.

The increasing development of various industries and globalization in the past decades have caused concerns about environmental pollution. Thus, in recent years, the effects of economic activities and globalization on the environment have attracted the attention of many researchers due to efforts to achieve sustainable development, and extensive theoretical and empirical research has been conducted in this area. In this regard, this paper investigates the effect of agricultural value-added and globalization on CO2 pollution in the agricultural sector in selected developing countries, including Iran, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Nigeria, South Africa, Colombia, and Iraq. For this purpose, panel data over 1995-2019 was used along with the fixed effects method. Research findings show that globalization has an inverse and significant relationship with CO2 emissions in the agricultural sector in developing countries. Therefore, it is recommended to lead firms toward renewing their structure to increase their productivity. In addition, it is suggested to move foreign investments, which are a part of globalization criteria, toward revision of infrastructures and optimal utilization of resources.

The limitation of non-renewable resources and the increasing of environmental pollution caused by  the accumulative consumption of  fossil fuels indicate the necessity of paying  attention to renewable sources. The  present stud  analyzes  the  factors affecting on the  quality of  the  environment  with emphasis  on the consumption of renewable energy and human capital such as education in developing and  developed countries. Also, the  impact  of GDP  (Gross National Production), abundance  of natural  resources and foreign direct investment  on the quality of the environment are  examined. The results  of using regression  based on panel data show that the        consumption of renewable energy  and human  capital has a positive and significant effect on the quality of the  environment  in the group  of developing the  countries. Also,  the  impact of  GDP, abundance  of natural resources  and foreign direct  investment on  the quality of the environment is negative. In  the group  of developed  countries, the impact of renewable energy  consumption, human  capital such  as education,  GDP and abundance of natural  resources on the quality of the environment is inthe same line with developing countries.